Behind the Bad Stats in China

I don’t want to be cynical about this article from the Shanghai Daily on the National Bureau of Statistics planning to investigate real-estate vacancies. No doubt, they heard the same thing I did. That landlords were turning on the lights  in vacant buildings and dwellings to give the impression that they occupied. Why? To buoy prices of course.  Here’s the excerpt…

CHINA will conduct research on the vacancy rate of houses in some cities as part of an effort to collect information and improve methodology for drafting future policies, a senior government official said yesterday.

The National Bureau of Statistics plans to launch investigations on vacant houses in some residential communities in selected cities, Ma Jiantang, head of the bureau, told an industry seminar yesterday, without giving further details.

The bureau will probably tap the upcoming sixth national census, a once-in-a-decade count of population in China, to gather information on vacant homes, Ma said.

The move comes after mounting public criticism that the current method of amassing statistics poorly reflects the real situation.

The National Bureau of Statistics said in February that real estate prices in 70 major cities climbed 1.5 percent year-on-year in 2009 – a figure that ordinary people and some industry experts alike said was way too low.

Could stuff like that happen without the government knowing about it? Highly doubtful. But who knows? This investigation could be on the level. Or it could be for show. Whichever it is, I doubt it’ll do any good. The lack of transparency benefits insiders “in-the-know.” And it’s the insiders who run the country. Hence my deeply ingrained cynicism on this subject. Just can’t help it.

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